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The American Phoenix: And Why China and Europe Will Struggle After the Coming Slump

Book Get a copy of The American Phoenix, by Diana Choyleva and Charles Dumas HERE. 2012 will bring another global economic crisis. It could have been avoided if America and other deficit countries had embarked on currency devaluation and tighter domestic policy to sustain recovery and growth, boost exports and savings, while cutting excessive debts built up in the pre-crisis ‘gilded age’. But they didn’t. Instead, they continued to run large government deficits, effectively transferring debt from private to public hands, rather than reducing it through rising national savings rates.Savings-rich countries, notably China, have not helped. To get the global economy in better balance they needed to reduce exports by revaluing their currencies and encouraging domestic demand. Instead, the second, third and fourth largest economies in the world have continued to increase their net exports, thwarting recovery in the United States, Britain, and southern Europe. This economic imbalance, say Dumas and Choyleva,…

The Bill From The China Shop: How Asia’s Savings Glut Threatens the World Economy

Book Get a copy of The Bill From The China Shop, by Diana Choyleva and Charles Dumas HERE. Alan Greenspan’s tenure at the US Federal Reserve coincided with a period of unparalleled global growth, stability and prosperity. But the world economy has been warped since the 1997 Asian crisis by excessive saving in China and developing Asia, as well as in Japan and north-central Europe. Unsophisticated economic policies and primitive financial systems, notably in China but also in other parts of Asia, have resulted in the global economy now depending on unprecedented current account deficits and the willingness of America, Britain, Australia and increasingly Europe, to import goods and capital. This has led to a huge build-up of domestic debt The United States, for example, spends more than 106% of its annual GDP. Household debt is soaring relative to income. Easy money policies inevitably lead to over-stimulation and the risk…

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