China’s Quest for Financial Self-Reliance

How Beijing Plans to Decouple from the Dollar-Based Global Trading and Financial System Special Project Beijing is challenging the privileged status of the Almighty Dollar, as it tries to carve out its own sphere of influence free of Uncle Sam. In this new and comprehensive report, Enodo’s Diana Choyleva and Dinny McMahon explore China’s plans to reconfigure the global financial order, analyzing whether it can decouple from the dollar and create a parallel system based on the yuan. Clear and indispensable, the report lays out China’s strategy, assesses its chances of success, and proposes steps US policymakers should take to safeguard America’s financial system. The report is the result of a year-long project, which we enjoyed tremendously. The authors thank the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars and its Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, led by Robert Daly, for providing us with the best home for this…

China and the Art of Peace

How The Light Gets In Festival 2022 Special Event Enodo Economics director of geopolitical and intelligence analysis Nigel Inkster took part in ‘How The Light Gets In’ Festival Description The rise of China has for decades been watched from the West with mistrust. With Xi Jinping making belligerent moves from the South China Sea to the Indian border, tensions have been mounting. Then in February, China and Russia announced a new global order and endorsed respective territorial ambitions in Taiwan and Ukraine. Days later Russia invaded. With Xi declaring to ‘reunite China’ by any means necessary, the threat is overt. The ancient Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu declared ‘in peace prepare for war’. Should this be Western strategy? Should the West go further and extend sanctions to China? And how should the West respond if China either directly aids Russia in Ukraine or embarks on its own military adventure? Or are…

Investing in the Era of the Great Decoupling

CFA Society Ireland seminar “Navigating the Macro Storm’’ Special Event Enodo Economics Chief Economist Diana Choyleva took part in the CFA Society Ireland seminar “Navigating the Macro Storm’’ on 25th of May in Dublin. Description China and the US don’t share a value system, and both want a global order centred on their values. They are decoupling and working to ensure self-sufficiency within their own spheres of influence. The Great Decoupling, as we call this all-encompassing great power competition between China and the US, presents many opportunities across asset classes, for both long-only and absolute return investors.

What To Own in a Low-yield World

Financial Investigator Seminar Special Event Enodo Economics Chief Economist Diana Choyleva took part in Financial Investigator Interactive Seminar: What To Own in a Low-yield World. Escalating Disruption, what’s the Macro Economic Outlook for 2022 and beyond? What’s the impact of China on the rest of the world? What to own, and not to own, in a low-yield world? What (alternative) fixed income sub asset classes are the most attractive? Highlights from Diana Choyleva’s participation in the seminar

China’s Quest for Financial Self-Reliance: Project announcement 

How Beijing Plans to Decouple from the Dollar-Based Global Trading and Financial System Special Project Enodo Economics and the Wilson Center have joined forces working on a year-long project to explore how China plans to challenge the dollar-led global financial order, whether its strategy can feasibly allow its decoupling from the dollar and assess its chances of creating a parallel system based on the yuan. The team is led by Diana Choyleva and Dinny McMahon and overseen by our Senior Advisory Board. We will produce an in-depth report in August 2022, intended to inform US policymakers on the impact this is likely to have on the US and suggest possible responses to safeguard America’s financial system, in line with its expressed national security goals. We start by developing a detailed understanding of China’s current efforts to promote the international use of the yuan, getting beyond the headlines to understand the…

The Great Decoupling: China, America and the Struggle for Technological Supremacy

Will China’s drive to achieve global technological dominance unravel the world order? Book Get a copy of The Great Decoupling by Nigel Inkster here For much of recorded history, China was a leading science and technology power. But just as the West rose, China turned in on itself and missed the Industrial Revolution. The result was the ‘Hundred Years of Humiliation’, and a long struggle for a modern, yet distinctly Chinese, civilisational identity. Today, technological innovation has returned to the core of national pride and ambition. Since the 1980s, reforms have transformed China into the world’s second largest economy and a major global power. Cyber space and other advanced technologies have become a battleground for international dominance; but today’s world relies on global supply chains and interstate collaboration – at least for now. Growing tension between the USA and China could result in the two superpowers decoupling their technology –…

Is the World Really Flat? Protectionism and Populism Reveal Craters

Bloomberg New Economy Forum 2019 Special Event Enodo Economics Chief Economist Diana Choyleva took part in Bloomberg New Economy Forum Session: Is the World Really Flat? Description Until a few years ago, globalization seemed to be an unstoppable force. No country would be left behind in a borderless global economy connected by fibre optic cables. Today, this dream of common prosperity has been shattered by the rise of populism and protectionism. The world is no longer flat. From the U.S. to Italy, a tide of resentment at globalization has redrawn the political map. Support for free trade and open borders has fractured, and with it support for mainstream politicians. Confidence in the traditional tools for maintaining growth is faltering. Protectionism threatens to hammer trade flows and slow the technology catch-up of developing economies. This year, trade growth will lag the overall expansion of the global economy. Populist leaders pushing inward-looking…

China’s Future Role in the Global Financial System

China Will Keep Opening Up, Promises Mr Renminbi Enodo Special Event Here is a sneak peak of the event. Zhou Xiaochuan, former Governor of the People’s Bank of China, and Mervyn King, former head of the Bank of England, discuss financial liberalisation in China, what’s wrong with the global financial system and the need for global rebalancing. Introduced by Enodo’s Diana Choyleva and moderated by the FT’s Martin Wolf. Crises that shook the world have held back China’s financial liberalisation and exchange-rate reform, but Beijing remains committed to further reform and opening up, says Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the People’s Bank of China. The US-China trade war may hamper progress, since market access to China’s financial sector is a bargaining chip in talks to resolve the dispute, according to Zhou. Yet despite these “negotiation games… I think we have quite good determination to have much braver financial…

The Big Debate: Has Globalization Gone Too Far?

Bloomberg New Economy Forum 2018 Special Event Description Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, and Stephen King, senior economic advisor at HSBC, debate Parag Khanna, managing partner at FutureMap, and Nandan Nilekani, co-founder and chairman at Infosys Ltd., over the pros and cons of globalization. Bloomberg Economics’ Stephanie Flanders moderates at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore on Nov. 6, 2018. Debate You can watch a recording of the debate here. Diana Choyleva’s speech ”For me personally globalization has been a great thing. I was born in Bulgaria while it was still communist. And at school my teachers did their best to teach me not to think. Then the Berlin Wall fell, and my fortunes changed dramatically for the better. I went to the UK to study and work and had the opportunity to learn from some of the best minds in economics. People who most definitely made…

China’s Great Wall of Debt: Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans and the End of the Chinese Miracle

The world has long considered China a juggernaut of economic strength, but since the global financial crisis, the country’s economy has ballooned in size, complexity, and risk Book Get a copy of China’s Great Wall of Debt by Dinny McMahon here. Once dominated by four state-owned banks, the nation’s financial system is a tangle of shadow banking entities, informal financial institutions, and complex corporate funding arrangements that threaten growth, stability, and reform efforts. The country has accumulated so much debt so quickly that economists increasingly predict a financial crisis that could make ‘Brexit’ or Greece’s economic ruin seem minor, and could undermine China’s ascent as a superpower. Earlier this year, President Xi Jinping issued an urgent call for reform that gives the country until 2020 to transform its economy – a vaguely-defined objective that most economists agree is unrealistic. Whether or not China will be responsible for the next global…

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