China 2024: What to Watch

Enodo Economics Announcement Enodo Economics Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva, contributed to the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis annual report ”China 2024: What to Watch”. You can read the full report HERE. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVAPWOHDcm0 Description The year 2023 was in many ways a very difficult one for China. Economic headwinds. High-level purges. Social discontent. Extreme weather events. Worsening geopolitical environment. Looking ahead to 2024, are matters likely to improve? In short: not by much.In this inaugural annual report, China 2024: What to Watch, the team at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, assesses the state of China’s economy, society, politics, environment, and foreign policy and largely foresees a vexing year ahead, forecasting ten key developments to watch closely: • China’s Economy Will Continue to Struggle, by Nathan Levine • Xi’s Prioritization of Security Will Continue to Weigh on Growth, by Diana Choyleva • Eroding Trust Could…

China 2024: Prospects for China’s Economy

Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis Panel Discussion Following the launch of Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis (CCA) annual report ”China 2024: What to Watch”, Enodo Economics Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva, took part in a panel discussion examining China’s economic prospects for 2024. Watch the panel discussion HERE. Speakers include CCA Senior Fellows Bert Hofman, Diana Choyleva, and Guonan Ma. CCA’s Executive Director Bates Gill moderates the conversation.

China – The Coming Petro-Currency State: Project announcement

How Beijing Plans to Redraw the Global Energy Trade Special Project Enodo Economics and The Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society have joined forces on a year-long project to delve into how China intends to elevate the global role of the yuan and challenge the dominance of the dollar by persuading oil producers, notably the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), to engage in yuan-based transactions. Principal Investigator Diana Choyleva, Chief Economist at Enodo Economics and senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, will lead the project. Project Objectives We aim to produce a comprehensive report by December 2024, informing policymakers, researchers, and financial communities about China’s strategy, its impact on oil market dynamics, and the potential consequences for the U.S. Research Focus Commencing with an exploration of how Beijing plans to ensure oil purchases in yuan through Chinese payment systems, our research will…

The End of Experimentation and Aspiration in Xi Jinping’s China

Enodo Economics Announcement Enodo Economics Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva, wrote a paper for the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, exploring how the leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping has changed the fundamental incentives driving the behaviour of key groups in China and beyond. You can read the paper HERE. In it, Diana discusses the shift from an open, pragmatic, and experimental approach to development to a more centralised, ideology-driven model. The paper also explores the impact of Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, top-down directives, and the diminishing role of local experimentation in shaping China’s policies. It highlights the changing dynamics within the private sector and its relationship with the Party, as well as the challenges faced by China’s youth. Understanding these shifts is crucial for comprehending the future trajectory of China’s economy and its implications for global dynamics.

C.E.O Market Movers

Special Event Enodo Economics Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva, our Director of Geopolitics, Nigel Inkster, and Enodo’s special advisor Sir Alex Younger, took part in various educational sessions at the C.E.O. Market Movers event which was held on 1-5 October 2023, in London. Description “Will the US and China Go to War Over Taiwan?”, presented by Diana Choyleva The world would have been a far safer place right now were it not for a small island in the Pacific ocean. An island that’s over 270 times smaller than each of America and China has become the lynchpin of their far-reaching great power competition and threatens to unravel the global economic and political order as we know it. A conflict over Taiwan, accidental or intentional, is the most consequential risk facing the world and one which remains poorly understood. With the Sino-US confrontation heating up from a trade war to a tech…

Xi Jinping: The Hidden Agendas of China’s Ruler for Life

Hidden Agendas examines the policy, ideology and politics of this “ruler for life” Book Get a copy of the book HERE. Lam sets out the ambitious and multi-faceted agendas that Xi has laid out taking China up to the early 2040s. Through comparisons with former Party leaders, the book assesses whether, having abandoned many of the key precepts of the Era of Reform and the Open Door, the supreme leader’s restitution of Maoist standards might enable China to sustain economic growth and project hard and soft power worldwide. The book also examines whether the Party will succeed in retaining the support of 1.4 bn Chinese in the face of unprecedented challenges in the economic and geopolitical arenas. It provides a comprehensive picture of Xi’s rise to power; his AI-assisted and “legalistic” surveillance and control mechanisms; China’s evolving economic system; Xi’s foreign and national-security policies and the implications of the 20th Party…

Asia Society Appointment

Enodo Economics Announcement We are delighted to announce that our Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva, is joining the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, as a non-resident Senior Fellow on the Chinese economy. The appointment was made public on June 6 at the same time as that of the brilliant Dr Lynette Ong, a professor of political science, who will serve as a non-resident Senior Fellow on Chinese society. It’s a great honour, opportunity and responsibility to work with the Asia Society, which has been advising governments, businesses and communities since 1956. Under Co-Founders Hon. Dr. Kevin Rudd and Jing Qian and executive director Bates Gill, the Center for China Analysis has become a leading global center for policy-relevant, objective analysis of China’s politics, economy and society, and its impact on the region and the world, in an era of growing strategic competition. And there’s no competition to rival the…

The Great Decoupling – the East versus the West as the world bifurcates into two distinct spheres of influence

Deloitte Non-Executive Directors (NED) Networking Dinner Special Event Enodo Economics Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva, took part in the Deloitte Non-Executive Directors (NED) networking dinner on 25th of May in Dublin. Description The Deloitte bi-annual Non-Executive Directors (NED) networking dinner was hosted by Colm McDonnel, partner at the Risk Advisory practice at Deloitte. Diana gave a presentation on the Great Decoupling – the East versus the West as the world bifurcates into two distinct spheres of influence. She discussed where the growth opportunities lie and what the risks are in this world of great power competition between the existing hegemon – America and the aspiring one – China. A world where China has opened its financial markets to foreign investors, while simultaneously distancing itself from Western influence and the free market liberal ideals. A world where America is determined to contain China’s rise but is no longer assured of its success. A…

The Great Decoupling: US vs China

CEO Coaching International Webcast Special Event Enodo Economics Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva, took part in the CEO Coaching International Webcast on the evolving politics of business in the era of the Great Decoupling on 23rd of May 2023. Description Diana Choyleva joined the CEO Coaching International president, Randy Dewey, to discuss why ”The Great Decoupling” is the defining force shaping global politics and economics for the foreseeable future. They also talked about whether China will invade Taiwan and whether the US will get involved, what China’s cozier relationship with Russia means for the US and many more. You can watch the webinar HERE.

China’s New Pattern of Development: Can Xi Get Consumers to Spend?

APAC Outlook: Will China continue to drive growth? Special Event Enodo Economics Chief Economist, Diana Choyleva, took part in the Neudata ‘’APAC Outlook: Will China continue to drive growth?’’ on 23rd of February. This webinar was held in partnership with Morgan Stanley and was exclusive to Neudata and Morgan Stanley clients. Description The webinar broadly questioned what the next phase of the market will look like in the APAC region, with a focus on how China is diversifying its industries and navigating the post-COVID landscape. The sessions explored key macro trends, industry diversification, and how commodity markets are being affected. You can watch Diana Choyleva’s presentation HERE.

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