Roundtable Summary Report
Enodo Economics, in collaboration with the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis hosted a private roundtable discussion examining how consumer demand will reshape China’s economic future. The session brought together leading China analysts to discuss Beijing’s consumption-led growth ambitions.
You can download the report HERE.
China is the world’s second-largest economy, and its economic trajectory has profound implications for global growth and stability. Yet with returns on debt-driven, state-led investment having slumped over the last decade and consumer confidence remaining anemic, the country risks entering a long-term deflationary spiral. Despite repeated pledges to pivot toward consumption as the primary driver of growth since the mid-2000s, Beijing has continued to fall back on supply-side measures, and consumer spending as a share of GDP remains low by developed country standards.
Beijing’s consumption pivot faces formidable headwinds. Most economists argue that the challenges run deeper than policy tweaks can fix and require wholesale government reforms to unlock households’ spending power. Mounting fiscal pressures may constrain Beijing’s ability to deliver the necessary stimulus. Perhaps most critically, consumption-driven growth sits uneasily alongside the Chinese Communist Party’s parallel obsession with tech supremacy through massive industrial investment. As Beijing struggles to rebalance its economy, its policy decisions continue to distort global markets. Chinese manufacturing dominance has already triggered political consequences worldwide, particularly in the United States, where China’s industrial policy is viewed as a threat to U.S. economic primacy.
The roundtable dissected China’s consumption challenge through four lenses:
- Structural versus cyclical barriers and measurement challenges. What prevents Chinese households from driving economic growth? Are obstacles fundamental or temporary, and how does data quality affect our understanding?
- Historical consumption patterns. How has China’s spending behaviour evolved, and where do traditional drivers stand?
- Beijing’s consumption playbook. What is the potential of recent policy interventions to meaningfully boost household demand?
- Policy contradictions. Can consumption-led growth coexist with the state’s parallel drive for technological dominance through industrial investment?
The roundtable adhered to the Chatham House Rule.
